Gonzalo Barr

Hurricane season starts today, which means that we can look forward to another round of dumb reporters blown away live on television, like this –

It also means that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center (the “Center”) has released their prediction of the number of named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes they expect to form in the North Atlantic before the conclusion of this season on November 30, 2009.In 2009, the Center is predicting 9-14 named storms, with 4-7 becoming hurricanes, and 1-3 of these becoming major hurricanes.

We won’t be able to tell how accurate this prediction is until the end of the year, once the season is over. But if past predictions are any indication, I choose to remain skeptical.  Let’s look at the past five years, from 2004 through 2008, inclusive.

2008

In 2008, the Center predicted 12-16 named storms, with 6-9 becoming hurricanes, and 2-5 of these becoming major hurricanes.

The records for 2008 show that there were 16 named storms, with 8 becoming hurricanes, and 5 of these (Bertha, Gustav, Ike, Omar, Paloma) becoming major hurricanes.

All three categories (named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes) came within the margin of predicted storms, even if they did so at the upper end of that margin. OK, three out of three. Not bad.

2007

In 2007, the Center predicted “a very high likelihood of an above-normal hurricane season,” with 13-17 named storms, 7-10 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes.

The records for 2007 show that there were 15 named storms, with 6 becoming hurricanes, and 2 of these (Dean, Felix) becoming major hurricanes.

While the number of named storms came perfectly within the margin, the number of hurricanes was less than the lowest number predicted, as was the number of major hurricanes. One out of three is not good.

2006

In 2006, the Center predicted a “very active 2006 season,” with 13-16 named storms, 8-10 of these becoming hurricanes, and 4-6 of these becoming major hurricanes.

The records for 2006 show that there were 9 “named storms” (10 tropical storms), with 5 becoming hurricanes, and 2 of these (Gordon, Helene) becoming major hurricanes.

Here, the Center over-predicted the number of all three categories by a substantial margin. Zero out of three is even worse.

2005

In 2005, the Center predicted 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes.

The records for 2005 show that there were 27 tropical storms, with 15 becoming hurricanes, and 6 of these (Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Maria, Rita, Wilma) becoming major hurricanes.

It’s pretty obvious that 2005 was likely the Center’s worst year for the accuracy of their predictions. The number of tropical storms was 180% of the predicted number, the number of hurricanes 167%, and the number of major hurricanes 120%. Zero out of three.

2004

In 2004, the Center predicted 12-15 tropical storms, with 6-8 becoming hurricanes, and 2-4 of these becoming major hurricanes.

The records for 2004 show that there were 14 tropical storms, with 9 becoming hurricanes, and 4 of these (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Karl) becoming major hurricanes.

Not a bad year, especially when compared with 2005, but not stellar either. While the number of tropical storms was within the margin predicted, the number of hurricanes exceeded the predicted number and the number of major hurricanes fell in the margin at the upper limit. Two out of three.

What do we make of these predictions? They would be no more than a curiosity for the average person, except for the fact that insurance companies use these predictions to set premiums for any area that could be affected by a North Atlantic hurricane.

Image:  Hurricane Wilma crosses Florida, GOES satellite (October 2005); Sources:  all data obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Center website and the National Hurricane Center website (accessed June 1, 2009)

Most of you must know that Haruki Murakami’s first novel in five years was released this month in Japan, that the demand has been so great the publisher increased the first print run from 380,000 to 480,000 copies, that the novel is two-volumes long and carries the evocative title, 1Q84, which some people take to be a play on the sound of the letter “q” (”ku” means nine in Japanese) to make it “1984.”  Other than that, no one knows anything else.  The publisher, Shinchosha, is not revealing what the novel is about.  Nature abhors a vacuum, so where there is an absence of information, you can always count on rumors to fill the void.

According to one rumor, Murakami was upset by the amount of publicity that preceded the release of Kafka By The Shore.  He felt that it ruined the novelty of the book.  Reportedly, it was his decision to keep the plot secret, for the sake of the book, and not some marketing ploy.  (Those words — “marketing” and “ploy” — go together quite naturally, don’t they?)

Another rumor holds that the book has something to do with an apocalyptic cult and thus the reference to “1984.”  Murakami already treated that subject in his non-fiction book, Underground, which was about the 1995 sarin gas attacks in the Tokyo subway by Aum Shinrikyo.  The book was a departure from anything he had written before — a compilation of numerous interviews with survivors and relatives.  It was also plodding, flat-footed, and read like a stack of police dossiers with little or no insight into the cult or the event or the people interviewed.  I hope this novel isn’t more of that.

Daniel Morales, in his blog, How to Japonese, posted some initial impressions after buying his copy –

- It was expensive. 1800 yen, or just about $18.  Do hardcovers in the US cost $36?

- It’s massive.  554 pages to be exact.  I believe Book 2 puts the combined length at over 1000 pages.

- It probably features chapters with alternating stories.  I’ve really only read through the index, but this is made clear by some kanji after the chapter numbers.  Can’t confirm this because I haven’t read anything yet.  Also haven’t looked up the kanji.

- The chapter titles are Pynchon/Fariña-esque.  Also similar to Wind-up Bird.  They’re more phrase-like than noun-like.  At one point they also refer to “readers” (読者), although this could very well be readers within the book and not me and you.

- It takes place between April and June. The months (4月ー6月) are on the cover.  I believe Book 2 has a different set of months.  (GB Note:  Volume 2 has the characters 7月ー9月 (July through September) on the cover.)

- It looks more dense than his past books.  Big blocky paragraphs.  Not so much dialogue and short phrasing as in old works.

- It smells like a book.

Morales also “live-blogged” his reading of the first fourteen of forty-eight chapters (over 300 pages) of the book here.

The publisher is playing it so cool, in fact, that they also refuse to disclose whether they have any plans to translate the novel, a nondisclosure that can only be intended to pique more interest and demand.

Murakami’s books sell millions of copies all over the world.  It is a foregone conclusion that it will be translated into several languages regardless of how coy the publisher wants to be.  Moreover, I am likely not going too far on a limb by guessing that the English translator will be Jay Rubin. (Rubin translated portions of The Elephant Vanishes (1993), Norwegian Wood (a second edition published by Harvill in 2000), The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle (1997), After the Quake (2002), portions of Blind Willow, Sleeping Woman (2005) and After Dark (2007).  Perhaps we can get an indication of how long it may take Rubin to translate this latest novel by looking at the time it took him to complete another long novel by Murakami.  The Wind-Up Bird Chronicle was first released in two volumes in 1994.  Rubin’s translation came out three years later.)

In the meantime, if you can’t wait and you absolutely have to have your fix of Murakami, Penguin books just released a new translation of short stories by Ryunosuke Akutagawa.  Roshomon and Seventeen Other Stories includes an introduction written by Murakami.  The stories were translated by Jay Rubin.

Source:  Justin McCurry, “Haruki Murakami fans snap up latest novel 1Q84 after five-year wait,” The Guardian (May 29, 2009), how to japonese blog via japan probe blog